“By 2029 you’ll be lucky if the market cap of #Bitcoin still exceeds the market cap of a baseball cap.”
This only led to Pompiliano doubling down on his prediction. He responded to Schiff, saying that he was trying to be conservative:
“[I] Think approximately a decade is rather conservative, so trying to account for many things that could possibly happen to slow growth.”
The current market capitalization of Bitcoin stands at $227 billion, while gold’s cap is about $9 trillion. That means that gold’s market cap is roughly 40 times higher than Bitcoin’s at time of writing. It was not clear from the tweet whether Pompiliano meant that Bitcoin’s cap would be higher than the current capitalization of gold, or the cap he expected gold to hold by 2029.
In conversation with Cointelegraph, Pompliano clarified:
“In 2029, the bitcoin market cap will be bigger than gold when they’re compared side by side.”
Bitcoin’s road towards overtaking gold has a number of potential paths. On one hand, both assets could grow in value, with Bitcoin growing much faster. Alternatively, Bitcoin could continue to gain value, while gold begins to depreciate. If it follows the first path, Bitcoin’s capitalization by 2029 would have to be above the $9 trillion mark. In the second case, Bitcoin could potentially be below this mark while still exceeding gold’s market cap.
Either way, this would be quite an achievement for a store-of-value asset that was created a mere ten years ago.